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Analysis




Daily Analysis Report

on 2017-10-03

October 03, 2017

By Golden FX Link

Fundamental analysis:

The Gold Website has shown that it was until October 3 that the biggest gold Exchange Traded Fund in the world (ETF) reduced the holding amount by 5.32 tons comparing to the previous day, and the current holding amount is 859.33tons, and the net increase of this month is 48.22 tons.

US Department of Commerce recently released data showing that the US personal consumption spending in August rose 0.1%; personal income rose 0.2%, the same as expectations. The US consumer spending in August fell, due to reduced car purchases, partly reflecting the impact of Hurricane Harvey. Data show that the United States core PCE price index in August rose 1.3% of annual rate, the lowest level since November 2015, staying down in the sixth consecutive month, the worst performance in two years.

US Labor Department data released on Thursday show that during last week, the number of jobless claims increased by 1.2 million to 27.2 million; in addition to the number of initial jobless claims increased to 27.775 million, the highest since February 2016, The number of applicants in Florida and Georgia in the south increased after the hurricane-ima attack.

On Wednesday (September 27), it was announced that the US August home sales contract index fell 2.6% of monthly rate, less than the previous value and expectations.

On Monday (October 2), it was released that the United States ISM manufacturing PMI price index in September was 60.8; higher than the previous value of 58.8 and the expected of 58; refreshing the new high since May 2011; the United States September ISM employment index refresh a new high since June 2011.

The data from Ministry of Commerce on Thursday shows that the US economic growth in the second quarter slightly improved, but it did not change the economy driven by the consumer as well as the overall situation of corporate spending. US Department of Commerce's latest report shows that the second quarter of the US real GDP annualized quarterly value of 3.1%, better than the expected of 3%, the best performance since the beginning of 2015.

On Wednesday (September 27), it was announced that the US August durable goods orders was 1.7% higher than the initial value, and 1% higher than the expected, mainly due to civil aircraft orders increased by 44.8%.

On Thursday, the US Labor Department announced that the until the week of September 16, the number of claims for unemployment benefits was 259,000 people, lower than the previous value of 284,000 and the expected of 300,000; it has been 133 consecutive weeks that it stays under the 30 million mark, The longest since ever. The US Department of Labor said the hurricane Harvey and Elmar affected the initial data.

Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said, "The recent sell-off is mainly about the sale of inflation management after Trump's long-term tax reform program, and the dollar has jumped to a six-week high and Treasury yields soared to a three-month high The US stock market hit a new high on Friday as investors sought risky assets.

On Monday it was announced that the US ISM manufacturing index in September was higher than the expected, hitting a new high since May 2004. Days of the United States Las Vegas City Mandalay Bay Hotel near the occurrence of a vicious shot incident, at least 50 people were killed and more than 200 people were injured. Analysts said the recent sell-off of the US dollar was mainly due to the optimistic trading of Trump's long-term tax reform. International gold fell to the lowest point since mid-August, once broke 1270 mark.

 

 

 

Daily investment strategy:

Analyzing on the daily gold graphic, the price moves down, KD is at the lower position. From the four-hour gold graphic, the price moves near the bottom Bollinger track, KD gold cross. For one-hour gold graphic, the gold Bollinger tracks shrink, KD gold cross. Therefore, the market can be fluctuated in a short period.

For today suggestion, buy at low price in between 1262.0-1268.0, set stop loss 1257.0, and take profit at 1272.0-1278.0; resistance level is 1283.0; support level is 1257.0.

The daily silver graphic illustrated that the price moves down, KD is at lower position. From four-hour silver graphic, the price moves in downtrend, KD gold cross. From one-hour silver graphic, the Bollinger tracks shrink, KD is at lower position. Therefore, the market can be fluctuated in a short period.

For today suggestion, buy at low price in between 16.30-16.55, set stop loss at 16.20 and take profit in between 16.65-16.90; Resistance level set at 17.00 and support level set at 16.17.

The price for considering to open position in the market

 

Highest price

Lowest Price

Close position

 

Highest Price

Lowest Price

Close position

 

New York futures

1282.8

1272.0

1273.5

 

USD index

93.65

93.06

93.63

London Gold

1277.7

1269.5

1271.1

1159.3

51.71

50.07

50.57

 

RMB

LKG

273.51

272.46

272.63

9999 Gold Price

 

HKD 12550

 

 

 

Today important data and issue:

10:30 Australia, up until October 3, the Australian Federal Reserve interest rate decision

16:00 Euro zone PPI monthly rate in August

10-03 Germany, Frankfurt Stock Exchange on the day off

South Korea Seoul Stock Exchange Mid-Autumn Festival closed four days, today is the first day

China Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange in National Day holiday until October 9.


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